Bush’s war against terror in the Horn of Africa is on a verge of taking calculated risks!

The Bush administration is engaged in a global war against terrorism and spending billions of dollars to wage an effective war by forging staratagic alliance with host of nations around the world. The war on terrorism in the horn of Africa based in the port city of Djibouti is part and parcel of this international war against terrorism. The Djibouti headquartered – Joint Integrated Task Force in the Horn of Africa led by Maj. General Timothy Gormlay is conducting the war by cooperating with host of nations in the region. The war against terrorism in the horn is gaining much praise from the commander of the US Central Command, General John Abizaid who made several trips to the region to talk with regional leaders and forge strong alliance with military and intelligence officials in the region.

However, the cooperation and success acquired so far might be short lived due to the inability of the Bush administration to help solve the border stalemate between its two best allies- Ethiopia and Eritrea- which seem to be on the verge resuming a full scale war.

Ethiopia and Eritrea being the principal partners in the war against terrorism in the region, any resumption of war between these two nations could have detrimental effect in America’s war against terrorism and has the potential of undoing all the achievements scored so far. The current stand off could easily degenerate into a full scale war and there by creating challenging environment for the joint integrated task force in the horn of Africa to conduct its execute its mission.

Why is the Bush Administration taking such a calculated risk? Isn’t an ounce of prevention much easier than a pound of treatment? To have a glimpse of understanding why US administration is miscalculating in pursuing its foreign policy in the region, it is vital to examine the Bush’s administration engagement in helping its two best allies in the region settle their border dispute according international laws and norms.

The tragic border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea sparked in 1998 attracted the attention of the international community when the two poorest nations in the world waged high tech war against each other and caused the death and displacement of tens thousands of lives. The two year devastating war ended by an American brokered peace deal signed in Algiers in Demeter 2000. According the peace deal, both nations decided to establish an independent boundary commission based at the Hague international court. The independent commission, financed by the US administration, after two years arduous process, rendered its verdict in April 2002. The US administration welcomed the verdict and appealed to both nations accept and implement the terms of the verdict without any delay. Both, nations informed the US administration and united nation security council that they have accepted the verdict and expressed their commitment to see it fully implemented.

However the international community’s hope was dashed when Ethiopian government disagreed with interpretation of the verdict and changed its stand from total acceptance to total rejection. After the Ethiopian rejection, Eritrea for the last four three years has been calling the United states administration , as the principal guarantor of the comprehensive peace deal, to live up to its duties and obligation to use the leverages at its disposal to pressure Ethiopia to implement the verdict to its letter and spirit.

Unfortunately, the US administration despite the repeated calls by the Eritrean government to pressure Ethiopia to accept the UN sponsored verdict, it has failed the people of both countries by its unwillingness to take tangible measures against Ethiopia. So far the United Nations has spent close to a billion dollars and the stalemate is still continues. However, the situation now seems to reach its critical point and the Eritrean government’s expectation that the US administration will eventually apply pressure Ethiopia to accept the verdict and avoid war is wearing thin. In fact, the recent meeting of United Security council warned the international community that unless the border stalemate is resolved soon enough, the two nations could immerse themselves into another devastating war. And such war could turn the region into unmangeble terrorist hotbed comparable to Afghanistan.

The US administration miscalculation squarely lies on the fact that it believes that the Eritrean government lacks the capacity to wage war and restore its sovereignty or it simply considers the repeated calls by Eritrea to the US administration to act before it is too late as mere bluffing.

This type of line of thinking seems to emanate from lack of understanding of the region’s political and cultural psychic. It would be interesting to mention what the American Ambassador to Eritrea said when the unexpected war erupted with the two seemingly friendly nations in 1998. When he learned through the news that the two counters were engaged in shooting incident , the then American Ambassador to Eritrea thought it was a joint military training between the two countries and of course it wasn’t a training but the start of a bloody war. And, His fellow American in Ethiopia, Ambassador David Shin, also openly predicted that Eritrean Economy couldn’t sustain a long term war with its giant neighbor to the south.

After five years stalemate, the facts on the ground seems to indicate contrary to the shallow prediction of Ambassador David shin. The facts are both nations are armed with more lethal and modern weaponry and slight miscalculation by the two nations and the US administration could herald the start of another Dante inferno that will flush the efforts of the international community to help the two countries come to terms on their border problem so far down the drain. And no one should be held accountable than the only super power in this planet-US administration. It has all the keys in its hands. Either it could live to the expectation of international community and use its influence to bring about peace by siding with international law and justice or it can continue to gauge Eritrea pleading with distorted prism and continue to turn its deaf ears and continue its biased stand that only contributed to the embolden the stubbornness of the regime in Addis to continue its lawlessness and indifference to international law and norms.

All these miscalculations didn’t help alleviate the complex problem but exacerbate them. Even now, not taking Eritrea seriously and doubting its right to defend itself will not benefit neither the bush administration’s interest in the region nor the impoverished people of these two destitute nations.

It is mind boggling to contemplate the fact that how could the war against terror benefit from such scenario? Wouldn’t be much easier for US administration pressure Ethiopia to abide by united nation’s sponsored verdict and have both nations rally behind its war against terrorism? How would the American tax payers benefit from such complacency by Bush administration to the most important issue concerning both of its best allies in the region? I will leave the answer to those questions to Americans who are living under the constant threat of terrorism.

Million Semere