Melles must not be
allowed to deny Somalis the peace and stability they enjoyed in the last few
months:
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Ertra.com,
Dec 28/2006
Those
who have been following the conflict in the horn must have noticed
that Ethiopia has consistently exhibited a recognizable pattern of behavior.
Melles’s strategy in dealing with conflicts seems to first make sure
that the western world, and in particular his master the US, are in
tune with what he plans to do. He has mastered the
way information is provided to the US and others. His close allies in
the west and the communication channels and lobbying power he managed
to build served him well to sell his deceitful and false information
in order to justify any action he wants to take. The following tactics
seem to be used by Melles again and again:
All
these items have been meticulously utilized in the current invasion
against Somalia. All of them have also been used in the war against
Eritrea. The
Eritrea case: When
Melles declared war on Eritrea, Eritrea gave Melles ample time to prepare
his military and diplomats to unleash a devastating invasion. Melles
managed to let Eritrea sit and wait for a prolonged time while he completes
his military preparations for a major assault. Melles put Eritrea in
such a difficult diplomatic position that it had to promise to not fire
the first bullet or else it would be seen as an aggressor. So, Eritrea
couldn’t attack the Ethiopian troops being amassed in front of its border
gates for the inevitable invasion. Militarily Eritrea had undisputedly
the upper hand during the first phase of the conflict. When Melles realized
the tiny Eritrean air force had the upper hand in the fight, he managed
to get an agreement from Eritrea (brokered by President Clinton) that
no air power will be used to minimize civilian casualties. This allowed
Melles to move his troops to the battle front under save air space.
In the mean time, he managed to restore Ethiopian air force with the
use of mercenaries and billions of dollars worth of air power. When
the time was ripe to restart the war, creating a fictitious story to
trigger the invasion was not a problem for Melles. The fictitious Adi
Grat air raid story is a famous one that shows how Melles can create
a false story to justify the use of air power on Eritrea. At the end
of the war, despite putting up a stiff resistance against the invading
army, Eritrea paid a heavy price for allowing Melles to take as much
time as he needed to prepare for a military show down with out any fear
of Eritrean attack. At
the early phase of the war, Eritrea was so powerful that it could have
conceivably managed to capture Mekele and beyond. Had that been the
case, the negotiations with the Ethiopians and their masters would have
been focused on how to handover Mekele and other undisputed Ethiopian
territory, not about Badme. Eritrea however chose to abide by the international law and pulled
its forces out of all undisputed Ethiopian territory and awaited the
Ethiopians at the border, tens of miles away from major Eritrean cities.
Although this was a show of tremendous self confidence and may have
sounded diplomatically correct, it definitely was not to Eritrea’s advantage
militarily. The Somali case: The
Somalia’s United Islamic Courts (UIC) have not learned from the Eritrean
experience. When they were strong and on the march, they should have
gone all the way to Baidoa and control the country before they can start
negotiations. The UIC was popular and swept across Somalia quickly.
The fight for Baidoa could have been relatively easy, had the UIC not
stopped at the gate of Baidoa early on and allowed the Somalia Transitional
Government (STG) to get reinforcement from Ethiopia.. While
the STG were negotiating a military support of Ethiopian forces, the
ICU was waiting for Ethiopia to prepare and build up its forces. The
fact is, when you allow your enemy to choose the timing and location
of an attack, you are giving your enemy tremendous advantage. Considering
that the Ethiopian army is very powerful and experienced, compared to
the young teen-agers army of the UIC, it was a suicide for the UIC to
wait for the Ethiopians to build up their power. Had
the UIC attacked Baidoa and forced the STG to flee the country, the
UIC would have been the de-facto government and army in Somalia. There
would have been no one to negotiate with other than the international
community including Ethiopia. Since there would be no STG army base,
the negotiation would have been about setting up a legitimate government
in Somalia (including the STG) and not about attacking or not attacking
Baidoa. Any military confrontation would have been pure Somalia against
external forces, which will have different dynamics. The State Departments
guidance to the so called “free” US press highlights this. It states
that the press is not allowed to write Ethiopia is violating the territorial
integrity of Somalia. Diplomatically,
the UIC didn’t do any better. Instead of focusing on their achievement
that brought peace and stability to large area in Somalia, they made
all kinds of statements that do not help their case. There was no need
for UIC to talk about Ogaden to be incorporated in to Somali land or
a call for jihad against Ethiopia. No need to ask other Moslems to join
the struggle against Ethiopia. This simply sounds like what the Ethiopians
wanted to hear, which is label the invasion a fight against fanatic
Moslems. The harsh application of Sharia law also was not helpful. It
is understandable and may have a unified effect to use Sharia in a country
that is predominantly Moslem. However, a phased implementation of Shareia
rules would have given the population more time to accept the change. What
will be next: Ethiopia
and the US may have managed to push out the UIC and may even manage
to keep them out of business for a longer period of time by providing
military assistance to the STG. This however will not bring any peace
to the Somali people. If the STG was the choice of the people of Somalia,
the UIC would have never been able to advance so quickly. Going back
to the pre UIC era is devastating to Somalia. Ethiopia must not be allowed
to deny the Somali people to exist as a unified country. Regional and
international politics should not longer be used to deny the millions
of Somali people to live in peace. They have suffered enough and it
is a crime against humanity for Ethiopia and the US to prolong the suffering.
The sensible action to take therefore must be to let the Somalis negotiate
their destiny and enjoy the brilliant peace and order the UIC managed
to demonstrate in many Somali cities. Shareia or no Shareia, it should
be up to the Somalis to decide their choice. If the US can live with
the authoritarian Arab kings who apply Shareia laws, there is no reason
for the US to fear the Somalis. It should work with the Somalis not
against them. As
for Eritreans, the lessons we learn from this is, God forbid, if we
ever have to fight Ethiopia again that we should do it on our own initiative
with complete disregard to the diplomatic quagmire that Ethiopia wants
us to enter in. In the end, no western country would shed tears for
any African country that goes down anyway. The winner takes it all is
the game in the west. |
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